Changes in Consumption Structure and Their Implications for Economic Growth

Abstract

This study examines the impact of changes in household consumption structure on economic growth within a macroeconomic framework. While previous studies predominantly focus on the effect of aggregate consumption on GDP, this research emphasizes the structural composition of consumption, particularly the shift from goods to services and the increasing role of digital consumption. Using time-series data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the analysis investigates both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships between consumption structure and economic growth. The results indicate that service and digital consumption exert a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP in both the short and long run. The Error Correction Term (ECT) confirms a stable adjustment mechanism toward long-run equilibrium. These findings suggest that qualitative changes in expenditure patterns contribute not only to demand expansion but also to productivity enhancement and structural transformation. The study integrates classical consumption perspectives, including the ideas of John Maynard Keynes, with modern growth dynamics, offering a structural macroeconomic approach that positions consumption composition as a strategic determinant of sustainable economic development.